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Hang Yuen vs Taiwan CPC — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Hang Yuen
Hang Yuen
FT
2 – 1
Taiwan CPC
Taiwan CPC
5/2/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 4National Yilan Senior High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hang Yuen50%
×Draw23%
Taiwan CPC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hang Yuen
1.79
Taiwan CPC
1.27

Hang Yuen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hang Yuen
1.76
Taiwan CPC
1.50

allows per match

Hang Yuen
1.04
Taiwan CPC
1.83

finishing

Hang Yuen+0.00on par
Taiwan CPC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Yuen ↓

Taiwan CPC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hang Yuen or draw
73%
Hang Yuen or Taiwan CPC
77%
Draw or Taiwan CPC
50%

Winning margin

Hang Yuen wins by 2+
27%
Taiwan CPC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hang Yuen 1+ goals
83%
Hang Yuen 2+ goals
53%
Hang Yuen 3+ goals
26%
Taiwan CPC 1+ goals
72%
Taiwan CPC 2+ goals
36%
Taiwan CPC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hang Yuen (draw refunded)
65%
Taiwan CPC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Yuen at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Taiwan CPC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Yuen attack 1.76 + Taiwan CPC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Taiwan CPC attack 1.50 + Hang Yuen defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hang Yuen scores more
50%
level
23%
Taiwan CPC scores more
27%

Hang Yuen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hang Yuen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taiwan Football Premier League: Hang Yuen 2–1 Taiwan CPC

Hang Yuen beat Taiwan CPC 2-1 in Taiwan Football Premier League on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at National Yilan Senior High School Stadium in Yilan City.