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Hang Yuen vs Taipei Red Lions — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Hang Yuen
Hang Yuen
FT
5 – 1
Taipei Red Lions
Taipei Red Lions
5/5/2019Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 2Hsinchu County Second Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Hang Yuen66%
×Draw19%
Taipei Red Lions14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hang Yuen
2.15
Taipei Red Lions
0.87

Hang Yuen creates 147% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 40 away

creates per match

Hang Yuen
1.76
Taipei Red Lions
0.70

allows per match

Hang Yuen
1.04
Taipei Red Lions
2.55

finishing

Hang Yuen+0.00on par
Taipei Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Yuen ↓

Taipei Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hang Yuen or draw
86%
Hang Yuen or Taipei Red Lions
81%
Draw or Taipei Red Lions
34%

Winning margin

Hang Yuen wins by 2+
42%
Taipei Red Lions wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hang Yuen 1+ goals
88%
Hang Yuen 2+ goals
63%
Hang Yuen 3+ goals
36%
Taipei Red Lions 1+ goals
58%
Taipei Red Lions 2+ goals
22%
Taipei Red Lions 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hang Yuen (draw refunded)
83%
Taipei Red Lions (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Yuen at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Taipei Red Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.55 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Yuen attack 1.76 + Taipei Red Lions defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.15

Taipei Red Lions attack 0.70 + Hang Yuen defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hang Yuen scores more
66%
level
19%
Taipei Red Lions scores more
14%

Hang Yuen at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hang Yuen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hang Yuen vs Taipei Red Lions

Hang Yuen beat Taipei Red Lions 5-1 in Taiwan Football Premier League on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Hsinchu County Second Stadium in Zhubei City.