Hang Yuen 7–0 Ming Chuan University: Result & Stats

Hang Yuen

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Ming Chuan University

11/30/2025

Taiwan Football Premier League · Round 9Fu Jen Catholic University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hang Yuen71%

×Draw17%

Ming Chuan University12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hang YuenExpected goals in this matchMing Chuan University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.88

Hang Yuen

2.42

Ming Chuan University

0.88

Hang Yuen creates 175% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 45 away

1.76

creates per match

0.71

1.04

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Hang Yuen

1.76

Ming Chuan University

0.71

allows per match

Hang Yuen

1.04

Ming Chuan University

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hang Yuen+0.00on par

Ming Chuan University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Yuen ↓

Ming Chuan University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hang Yuen or draw

88%

Hang Yuen or Ming Chuan University

83%

Draw or Ming Chuan University

29%

Winning margin

Hang Yuen wins by 2+

48%

Ming Chuan University wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hang Yuen 1+ goals

91%

Hang Yuen 2+ goals

69%

Hang Yuen 3+ goals

43%

Ming Chuan University 1+ goals

59%

Ming Chuan University 2+ goals

22%

Ming Chuan University 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hang Yuen (draw refunded)

86%

Ming Chuan University (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Yuen at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Ming Chuan University away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.07 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Yuen attack 1.76 + Ming Chuan University defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.42

Ming Chuan University attack 0.71 + Hang Yuen defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Hang Yuen scores more

71%

level

17%

Ming Chuan University scores more

12%

Hang Yuen at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Hang Yuen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff