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Hang Sai vs Tak Chun Ka I — Primeira Divisão 2026

Hang Sai
Hang Sai
FT
4 – 4
Tak Chun Ka I
Tak Chun Ka I
4/23/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 8Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hang Sai68%
×Draw15%
Tak Chun Ka I18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hang Sai
3.71
Tak Chun Ka I
1.94

Hang Sai creates 91% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 16 away

creates per match

Hang Sai
2.35
Tak Chun Ka I
1.13

allows per match

Hang Sai
2.76
Tak Chun Ka I
5.06

finishing

Hang Sai+0.00on par
Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Sai ↓

Tak Chun Ka I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Hang Sai or draw
82%
Hang Sai or Tak Chun Ka I
85%
Draw or Tak Chun Ka I
32%

Winning margin

Hang Sai wins by 2+
50%
Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hang Sai 1+ goals
97%
Hang Sai 2+ goals
87%
Hang Sai 3+ goals
69%
Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals
86%
Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals
58%
Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hang Sai (draw refunded)
79%
Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Sai at home — creates 2.35, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

Tak Chun Ka I away — creates 1.13, concedes 5.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Sai attack 2.35 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 5.06 → ÷2 → 3.71

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.13 + Hang Sai defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hang Sai scores more
68%
level
15%
Tak Chun Ka I scores more
18%

Hang Sai at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hang Sai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hang Sai vs Tak Chun Ka I

Hang Sai and Tak Chun Ka I drew 4-4 in Primeira Divisão on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.