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Hang Sai vs Monte Carlo — Primeira Divisão 2026

Hang Sai
Hang Sai
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
7/1/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 13Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hang Sai32%
×Draw20%
Monte Carlo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hang Sai
1.88
Monte Carlo
2.29

Monte Carlo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hang Sai
2.35
Monte Carlo
1.82

allows per match

Hang Sai
2.76
Monte Carlo
1.41

finishing

Hang Sai+0.00on par
Monte Carlo+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Sai ↓

Monte Carlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Hang Sai or draw
53%
Hang Sai or Monte Carlo
80%
Draw or Monte Carlo
68%

Winning margin

Hang Sai wins by 2+
17%
Monte Carlo wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Hang Sai 1+ goals
85%
Hang Sai 2+ goals
56%
Hang Sai 3+ goals
29%
Monte Carlo 1+ goals
90%
Monte Carlo 2+ goals
66%
Monte Carlo 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Hang Sai (draw refunded)
41%
Monte Carlo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Sai at home — creates 2.35, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

Monte Carlo away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Sai attack 2.35 + Monte Carlo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.88

Monte Carlo attack 1.82 + Hang Sai defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hang Sai scores more
32%
level
20%
Monte Carlo scores more
47%

Monte Carlo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Monte Carlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hang Sai vs Monte Carlo

Monte Carlo beat Hang Sai 4-0 in Primeira Divisão on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.