Hang Sai 3–4 Benfica: Result & Stats

Hang Sai

FT

3 – 4

Benfica

4/7/2024

Primeira Divisão · Round 6Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hang Sai31%

×Draw19%

Benfica50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hang SaiExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.57

Hang Sai

2.00

Benfica

2.57

Benfica creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

2.35

creates per match

2.38

2.76

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Hang Sai

2.35

Benfica

2.38

allows per match

Hang Sai

2.76

Benfica

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hang Sai+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Sai ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Hang Sai or draw

50%

Hang Sai or Benfica

81%

Draw or Benfica

69%

Winning margin

Hang Sai wins by 2+

16%

Benfica wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Hang Sai 1+ goals

86%

Hang Sai 2+ goals

59%

Hang Sai 3+ goals

32%

Benfica 1+ goals

92%

Benfica 2+ goals

72%

Benfica 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Hang Sai (draw refunded)

38%

Benfica (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Sai at home — creates 2.35, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Sai attack 2.35 + Benfica defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.00

Benfica attack 2.38 + Hang Sai defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hang Sai scores more

31%

level

19%

Benfica scores more

50%

Benfica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff