Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Bury: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bury

O. Cissé 90'

8/11/2018

League Two · Round 2Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons44%

×Draw26%

Bury30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchBury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.14

Milton Keynes Dons

1.43

Bury

1.14

Milton Keynes Dons creates 25% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 24 away

1.61

creates per match

1.29

0.98

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.61

Bury

1.29

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.98

Bury

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Bury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Bury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

70%

Milton Keynes Dons or Bury

74%

Draw or Bury

56%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

21%

Bury wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

76%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

42%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

17%

Bury 1+ goals

68%

Bury 2+ goals

32%

Bury 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

59%

Bury (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.98 · 93 matches

Bury away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.61 + Bury defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bury attack 1.29 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

44%

level

26%

Bury scores more

30%

Milton Keynes Dons at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

G. Omotayo← T. Miller

61'

O. Cissé← R. Watson

61'

D. Telford← C. Dagnall

67'

R. Simpson← D. Asonganyi

76'

J. O'Shea← D. Mayor

79'

Callum Brittain

79'

R. Harley← C. Brittain

90'

O. Cissé↳ G. Williams

Milton

Bury

1

Murphy

5

Thompson

2

▼

3

6

31

7

10

▼

Mayor

4

Aimson

11

▼

12

1

3

4

24

15

2

A

Williams

25

▼

Brittain

7

▼

Watson

8

Gilbey

14

Agard

37

▼

Asonganyi

Manager: P. Tisdale

61'▲O. Cissé←▼R. Watson

67'▲R. Simpson←▼D. Asonganyi

79'▲R. Harley←▼C. Brittain

Milton Keynes Dons substitutes

6Cissé19Simpson33Harley12Hancox13Sietsma26Cargill28Jackson

Manager: R. Lowe

41'▲G. Omotayo←▼T. Miller

61'▲D. Telford←▼C. Dagnall

76'▲J. O'Shea←▼D. Mayor

Bury substitutes

27Omotayo18Telford26O'Shea8Dawson13Hudson21McFadzean33Bunn