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Hanau 93 vs Hessen Dreieich — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hanau 93
Hanau 93
CANC
14:00
Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
10/31/2020Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 13Sportplatz an der Kastanienallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hanau 9333%
×Draw22%
Hessen Dreieich45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hanau 93
1.65
Hessen Dreieich
1.93

Hessen Dreieich creates 17% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 21 away

creates per match

Hanau 93
1.77
Hessen Dreieich
2.14

allows per match

Hanau 93
1.71
Hessen Dreieich
1.52

finishing

Hanau 93+0.00on par
Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanau 93 ↓

Hessen Dreieich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hanau 93 or draw
55%
Hanau 93 or Hessen Dreieich
78%
Draw or Hessen Dreieich
67%

Winning margin

Hanau 93 wins by 2+
16%
Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hanau 93 1+ goals
81%
Hanau 93 2+ goals
49%
Hanau 93 3+ goals
23%
Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
85%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
57%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hanau 93 (draw refunded)
43%
Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanau 93 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.71 · 91 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanau 93 attack 1.77 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Hanau 93 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hanau 93 scores more
33%
level
22%
Hessen Dreieich scores more
45%

Hessen Dreieich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hanau 93 vs Hessen Dreieich — Match Preview

Hanau 93 face Hessen Dreieich on October 31, 2020 in this Oberliga - Hessen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hanau 93 host Hessen Dreieich at Sportplatz an der Kastanienallee.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.