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Hanau 93 vs Friedberg — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hanau 93
Hanau 93
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Friedberg
Friedberg
8/3/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 2Sportplatz an der Kastanienallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Hanau 9336%
×Draw22%
Friedberg42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hanau 93
1.65
Friedberg
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 92 away

creates per match

Hanau 93
1.77
Friedberg
1.89

allows per match

Hanau 93
1.71
Friedberg
1.52

finishing

Hanau 93+0.00on par
Friedberg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanau 93 ↓

Friedberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hanau 93 or draw
58%
Hanau 93 or Friedberg
78%
Draw or Friedberg
64%

Winning margin

Hanau 93 wins by 2+
18%
Friedberg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hanau 93 1+ goals
81%
Hanau 93 2+ goals
49%
Hanau 93 3+ goals
23%
Friedberg 1+ goals
83%
Friedberg 2+ goals
54%
Friedberg 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Hanau 93 (draw refunded)
46%
Friedberg (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanau 93 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.71 · 91 matches

Friedberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanau 93 attack 1.77 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Friedberg attack 1.89 + Hanau 93 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hanau 93 scores more
36%
level
22%
Friedberg scores more
42%

Friedberg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Friedberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Hanau 93 1–2 Friedberg

Friedberg beat Hanau 93 2-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz an der Kastanienallee in Hanau.