Hanácká 0–3 Zbrojovka Brno: Result & Stats | FNL

Hanácká

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Zbrojovka Brno

11/4/2023

FNL · Round 15Stadion Jožky Silného

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hanácká28%

×Draw26%

Zbrojovka Brno46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HanáckáExpected goals in this matchZbrojovka Brno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.50

Hanácká

1.10

Zbrojovka Brno

1.50

Zbrojovka Brno creates 36% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

1.07

creates per match

1.76

1.23

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Hanácká

1.07

Zbrojovka Brno

1.76

allows per match

Hanácká

1.23

Zbrojovka Brno

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hanácká+0.00on par

Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanácká ↓

Zbrojovka Brno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hanácká or draw

54%

Hanácká or Zbrojovka Brno

74%

Draw or Zbrojovka Brno

72%

Winning margin

Hanácká wins by 2+

11%

Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hanácká 1+ goals

67%

Hanácká 2+ goals

30%

Hanácká 3+ goals

10%

Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals

78%

Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals

44%

Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hanácká (draw refunded)

37%

Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanácká at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Zbrojovka Brno away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanácká attack 1.07 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.76 + Hanácká defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hanácká scores more

28%

level

26%

Zbrojovka Brno scores more

46%

Zbrojovka Brno at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff