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Hanácká vs Púchov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hanácká
Hanácká
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Púchov
Púchov
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3UMT Kroměříž

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hanácká45%
×Draw20%
Púchov35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hanácká
2.29
Púchov
2.02

Hanácká creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hanácká
1.82
Púchov
2.63

allows per match

Hanácká
1.41
Púchov
2.75

finishing

Hanácká+0.00on par
Púchov+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanácká ↓

Púchov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Hanácká or draw
65%
Hanácká or Púchov
80%
Draw or Púchov
55%

Winning margin

Hanácká wins by 2+
26%
Púchov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hanácká 1+ goals
90%
Hanácká 2+ goals
66%
Hanácká 3+ goals
40%
Púchov 1+ goals
87%
Púchov 2+ goals
60%
Púchov 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Hanácká (draw refunded)
56%
Púchov (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanácká at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Púchov away — creates 2.63, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanácká attack 1.82 + Púchov defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.29

Púchov attack 2.63 + Hanácká defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hanácká scores more
45%
level
20%
Púchov scores more
35%

Hanácká at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hanácká will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Hanácká 2–0 Púchov

Hanácká beat Púchov 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at UMT Kroměříž in Kroměříž.