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Hanácká vs Příbram — FNL 2019

Hanácká
Hanácká
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Příbram
Příbram
3/16/2024FNLFNL · Round 19Stadion Jožky Silného

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hanácká37%
×Draw27%
Příbram36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hanácká
1.27
Příbram
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hanácká
1.07
Příbram
1.25

allows per match

Hanácká
1.23
Příbram
1.47

finishing

Hanácká+0.00on par
Příbram+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanácká ↓

Příbram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hanácká or draw
64%
Hanácká or Příbram
73%
Draw or Příbram
63%

Winning margin

Hanácká wins by 2+
16%
Příbram wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hanácká 1+ goals
72%
Hanácká 2+ goals
36%
Hanácká 3+ goals
14%
Příbram 1+ goals
71%
Příbram 2+ goals
35%
Příbram 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hanácká (draw refunded)
51%
Příbram (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanácká at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Příbram away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanácká attack 1.07 + Příbram defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Příbram attack 1.25 + Hanácká defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hanácká scores more
37%
level
27%
Příbram scores more
36%

Hanácká at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hanácká will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hanácká vs Příbram

Příbram beat Hanácká 2-0 in FNL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Jožky Silného in Kroměříž.