Hanácká 3–2 Dolní Benešov: Result & Stats

Hanácká

FT

3 – 2

Dolní Benešov

10/4/2019

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 10UMT Stadion SK Hanácká Slavia Kroměříž

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hanácká69%

×Draw17%

Dolní Benešov14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HanáckáExpected goals in this matchDolní Benešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.04

Hanácká

2.53

Dolní Benešov

1.04

Hanácká creates 143% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 26 away

2.33

creates per match

1.08

1.00

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Hanácká

2.33

Dolní Benešov

1.08

allows per match

Hanácká

1.00

Dolní Benešov

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hanácká+0.00on par

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanácká ↓

Dolní Benešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Hanácká or draw

86%

Hanácká or Dolní Benešov

83%

Draw or Dolní Benešov

31%

Winning margin

Hanácká wins by 2+

47%

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hanácká 1+ goals

92%

Hanácká 2+ goals

71%

Hanácká 3+ goals

46%

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals

65%

Dolní Benešov 2+ goals

28%

Dolní Benešov 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hanácká (draw refunded)

83%

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanácká at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 46 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanácká attack 2.33 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.53

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Hanácká defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hanácká scores more

69%

level

17%

Dolní Benešov scores more

14%

Hanácká at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hanácká will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff