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Dolní Benešov vs Hanácká — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
CANC
15:00
Hanácká
Hanácká
5/17/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 27Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dolní Benešov21%
×Draw23%
Hanácká56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolní Benešov
1.02
Hanácká
1.82

Hanácká creates 78% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 52 away

creates per match

Dolní Benešov
0.80
Hanácká
2.04

allows per match

Dolní Benešov
1.60
Hanácká
1.25

finishing

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par
Hanácká+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolní Benešov ↓

Hanácká →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dolní Benešov or draw
44%
Dolní Benešov or Hanácká
77%
Draw or Hanácká
79%

Winning margin

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
8%
Hanácká wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
64%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
27%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
8%
Hanácká 1+ goals
84%
Hanácká 2+ goals
54%
Hanácká 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
27%
Hanácká (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolní Benešov at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Hanácká away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.25 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolní Benešov attack 0.80 + Hanácká defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Hanácká attack 2.04 + Dolní Benešov defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dolní Benešov scores more
21%
level
23%
Hanácká scores more
56%

Hanácká at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hanácká will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dolní Benešov host Hanácká

May 17, 2020: Dolní Benešov take on Hanácká in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dolní Benešov host Hanácká at Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.