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Hanácká vs Artis — FNL 2019

Hanácká
Hanácká
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Artis
Artis
4/6/2024FNLFNL · Round 21Stadion Jožky Silného

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hanácká33%
×Draw28%
Artis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hanácká
1.14
Artis
1.25

Artis creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 103 away

creates per match

Hanácká
1.07
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Hanácká
1.23
Artis
1.21

finishing

Hanácká+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanácká ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hanácká or draw
61%
Hanácká or Artis
72%
Draw or Artis
67%

Winning margin

Hanácká wins by 2+
14%
Artis wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hanácká 1+ goals
68%
Hanácká 2+ goals
32%
Hanácká 3+ goals
11%
Artis 1+ goals
71%
Artis 2+ goals
36%
Artis 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hanácká (draw refunded)
46%
Artis (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanácká at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanácká attack 1.07 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Artis attack 1.28 + Hanácká defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hanácká scores more
33%
level
28%
Artis scores more
39%

Artis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Hanácká 1–1 Artis

Hanácká and Artis drew 1-1 in FNL on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Jožky Silného in Kroměříž.