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Hamsik Academy vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 3. liga - West 2020

Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
10/18/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 7Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hamsik Academy35%
×Draw29%
Lokomotíva Zvolen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamsik Academy
1.10
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hamsik Academy
1.20
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.33

allows per match

Hamsik Academy
0.91
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.00

finishing

Hamsik Academy+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamsik Academy ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hamsik Academy or draw
64%
Hamsik Academy or Lokomotíva Zvolen
71%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
65%

Winning margin

Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
14%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
67%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
30%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
10%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
67%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
31%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
49%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamsik Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.91 · 46 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamsik Academy attack 1.20 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.33 + Hamsik Academy defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hamsik Academy scores more
35%
level
29%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
36%

Lokomotíva Zvolen at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lokomotíva Zvolen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Hamsik Academy 0–0 Lokomotíva Zvolen

Hamsik Academy and Lokomotíva Zvolen drew 0-0 in 3. liga - West on October 18, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rakytovce in Banská Bystrica.