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Hamsik Academy vs Inter Bratislava — 3. liga - West 2020

Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Bratislava
Inter Bratislava
8/31/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 5Tréningové futbalové ihrisko Radvaň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Hamsik Academy41%
×Draw26%
Inter Bratislava32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamsik Academy
1.39
Inter Bratislava
1.20

Hamsik Academy creates 16% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 31 away

creates per match

Hamsik Academy
1.20
Inter Bratislava
1.48

allows per match

Hamsik Academy
0.91
Inter Bratislava
1.58

finishing

Hamsik Academy+0.00on par
Inter Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamsik Academy ↓

Inter Bratislava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hamsik Academy or draw
68%
Hamsik Academy or Inter Bratislava
74%
Draw or Inter Bratislava
59%

Winning margin

Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
19%
Inter Bratislava wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
75%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
40%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
16%
Inter Bratislava 1+ goals
70%
Inter Bratislava 2+ goals
34%
Inter Bratislava 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
56%
Inter Bratislava (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamsik Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.91 · 46 matches

Inter Bratislava away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamsik Academy attack 1.20 + Inter Bratislava defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Inter Bratislava attack 1.48 + Hamsik Academy defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hamsik Academy scores more
41%
level
26%
Inter Bratislava scores more
32%

Hamsik Academy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hamsik Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Hamsik Academy 1–3 Inter Bratislava

Inter Bratislava beat Hamsik Academy 3-1 in 3. liga - West on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Tréningové futbalové ihrisko Radvaň in Banská Bystrica.