Hamsik Academy 2–0 Dubnica: Result & Stats

Hamsik Academy

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dubnica

9/30/2023

3. liga - West · West - 9Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hamsik Academy68%

×Draw19%

Dubnica14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamsik AcademyExpected goals in this matchDubnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.92

Hamsik Academy

2.27

Dubnica

0.92

Hamsik Academy creates 147% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

1.20

creates per match

0.93

0.91

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Hamsik Academy

1.20

Dubnica

0.93

allows per match

Hamsik Academy

0.91

Dubnica

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamsik Academy+0.00on par

Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamsik Academy ↓

Dubnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hamsik Academy or draw

86%

Hamsik Academy or Dubnica

81%

Draw or Dubnica

32%

Winning margin

Hamsik Academy wins by 2+

44%

Dubnica wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hamsik Academy 1+ goals

90%

Hamsik Academy 2+ goals

66%

Hamsik Academy 3+ goals

39%

Dubnica 1+ goals

60%

Dubnica 2+ goals

23%

Dubnica 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)

83%

Dubnica (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamsik Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.91 · 46 matches

Dubnica away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamsik Academy attack 1.20 + Dubnica defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

Dubnica attack 0.93 + Hamsik Academy defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hamsik Academy scores more

68%

level

19%

Dubnica scores more

14%

Hamsik Academy at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hamsik Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff