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Hamsik Academy vs Častkovce — 3. liga - West 2020

Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
FT
3 – 1
Častkovce
Častkovce
3/12/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 17Tréningové futbalové ihrisko Radvaň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Hamsik Academy44%
×Draw26%
Častkovce29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamsik Academy
1.43
Častkovce
1.11

Hamsik Academy creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 85 away

creates per match

Hamsik Academy
1.20
Častkovce
1.32

allows per match

Hamsik Academy
0.91
Častkovce
1.66

finishing

Hamsik Academy+0.00on par
Častkovce+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamsik Academy ↓

Častkovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hamsik Academy or draw
71%
Hamsik Academy or Častkovce
74%
Draw or Častkovce
56%

Winning margin

Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
21%
Častkovce wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
76%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
42%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
17%
Častkovce 1+ goals
67%
Častkovce 2+ goals
30%
Častkovce 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
60%
Častkovce (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamsik Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.91 · 46 matches

Častkovce away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamsik Academy attack 1.20 + Častkovce defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.43

Častkovce attack 1.32 + Hamsik Academy defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hamsik Academy scores more
44%
level
26%
Častkovce scores more
29%

Hamsik Academy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hamsik Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hamsik Academy vs Častkovce

Hamsik Academy beat Častkovce 3-1 in 3. liga - West on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Tréningové futbalové ihrisko Radvaň in Banská Bystrica.