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Hamsik Academy vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom — 3. liga - West 2020

Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
4/20/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 23Tréningové futbalové ihrisko Radvaň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Hamsik Academy46%
×Draw28%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamsik Academy
1.31
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
0.91

Hamsik Academy creates 44% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 31 away

creates per match

Hamsik Academy
1.20
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
0.90

allows per match

Hamsik Academy
0.91
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.42

finishing

Hamsik Academy+0.00on par
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamsik Academy ↓

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hamsik Academy or draw
74%
Hamsik Academy or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
72%
Draw or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
54%

Winning margin

Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
21%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
73%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
38%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
14%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals
60%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals
23%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
64%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamsik Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.91 · 46 matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamsik Academy attack 1.20 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 0.90 + Hamsik Academy defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hamsik Academy scores more
46%
level
28%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more
26%

Hamsik Academy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hamsik Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Hamsik Academy 2–0 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Hamsik Academy beat Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2-0 in 3. liga - West on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Tréningové futbalové ihrisko Radvaň in Banská Bystrica.