Hamrun Spartans vs Zabbar St. Patrick

Hamrun Spartans

Preview

16:00

Zabbar St. Patrick

9/5/2026

League #393 · Round 4

Big match

39%

Hamrun Spartans

model favours

39%28%33%

Zabbar St. Patrick score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

59%

under 2.5 goals

47%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hamrun Spartans39%

×Draw28%

Zabbar St. Patrick33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamrun SpartansExpected goals in this matchZabbar St. Patrick

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.11

Hamrun Spartans

1.22

Zabbar St. Patrick

1.11

Hamrun Spartans creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

0.96

creates per match

1.19

1.04

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Hamrun Spartans

0.96

Zabbar St. Patrick

1.19

allows per match

Hamrun Spartans

1.04

Zabbar St. Patrick

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par

Zabbar St. Patrick+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamrun Spartans ↓

Zabbar St. Patrick →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hamrun Spartans or draw

67%

Hamrun Spartans or Zabbar St. Patrick

72%

Draw or Zabbar St. Patrick

61%

Winning margin

Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+

17%

Zabbar St. Patrick wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals

70%

Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals

34%

Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals

12%

Zabbar St. Patrick 1+ goals

67%

Zabbar St. Patrick 2+ goals

30%

Zabbar St. Patrick 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)

54%

Zabbar St. Patrick (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamrun Spartans at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Zabbar St. Patrick away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamrun Spartans attack 0.96 + Zabbar St. Patrick defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.22

Zabbar St. Patrick attack 1.19 + Hamrun Spartans defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hamrun Spartans scores more

39%

level

28%

Zabbar St. Patrick scores more

33%

Hamrun Spartans at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hamrun Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Hamrun Spartans score first in only 17% of matches
Zabbar St. Patrick win just 10% of their away games
Hamrun Spartans have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
Zabbar St. Patrick raise their game against the top half — 31% wins vs the upper half, only 11% vs the lower
Both teams score in only 33% of Hamrun Spartans’s matches
41% of Zabbar St. Patrick’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Spartans

LDWLD

Patrick

LDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff