Hamrun Spartans 3–1 Zabbar St. Patrick

Hamrun Spartans

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zabbar St. Patrick

L. Montebello 89' (pen)

J. Mbong 78'

Raphael Lopes 37'

David Oliveira 73'

8/18/2024

League #393 · Opening - 1Tony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hamrun Spartans39%

×Draw28%

Zabbar St. Patrick33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamrun SpartansExpected goals in this matchZabbar St. Patrick

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.11

Hamrun Spartans

1.22

Zabbar St. Patrick

1.11

Hamrun Spartans creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

0.96

creates per match

1.19

1.04

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Hamrun Spartans

0.96

Zabbar St. Patrick

1.19

allows per match

Hamrun Spartans

1.04

Zabbar St. Patrick

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par

Zabbar St. Patrick+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamrun Spartans ↓

Zabbar St. Patrick →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hamrun Spartans or draw

67%

Hamrun Spartans or Zabbar St. Patrick

72%

Draw or Zabbar St. Patrick

61%

Winning margin

Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+

17%

Zabbar St. Patrick wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals

70%

Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals

34%

Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals

12%

Zabbar St. Patrick 1+ goals

67%

Zabbar St. Patrick 2+ goals

30%

Zabbar St. Patrick 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)

54%

Zabbar St. Patrick (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamrun Spartans at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Zabbar St. Patrick away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamrun Spartans attack 0.96 + Zabbar St. Patrick defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.22

Zabbar St. Patrick attack 1.19 + Hamrun Spartans defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hamrun Spartans scores more

39%

level

28%

Zabbar St. Patrick scores more

33%

Hamrun Spartans at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hamrun Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

S. Xerri← S. Borg

30'

32'

36'

37'

46'

57'

S. Gatt← Marcelo

72'

B. Gambarte← Diogo Tavares

72'

S. Ilić← Martim Ferreira

73'

David Oliveira

75'

Eder← Elionay

78'

J. Mbong

82'

D. Letherby← Talison

82'

D. Fava← Đ. Jovičić

89'

L. MontebelloPenalty

Hamrun

Zabbar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: A. Zinnari

13'▲S. Xerri←▼S. Borg

75'▲Eder←▼Elionay

82'▲D. Letherby←▼Talison

Hamrun Spartans substitutes

XerriEderLetherbyCélioMangionVellaCorbalanSciclunaEllulAttardVitão

Manager: João Janeiro

46'▲João Pedro←▼L. Agius

57'▲S. Gatt←▼Marcelo

72'▲B. Gambarte←▼Diogo Tavares

72'▲S. Ilić←▼Martim Ferreira

82'▲D. Fava←▼Đ. Jovičić

Zabbar St. Patrick substitutes

PedroGattGambarteIlićFavaNakovDaveyCamilleriAzzopardiJovančićEtim

League #393: Hamrun Spartans 3–1 Zabbar St. Patrick

Hamrun Spartans beat Zabbar St. Patrick 3-1 in League #393 on August 18, 2024.

Goals: Raphael Lopes (37'), David Oliveira (73'), J. Mbong (78'), L. Montebello (89' pen).

The match was played at Tony Bezzina Stadium in Paola.

Hamrun Spartans vs Zabbar St. Patrick — League #393 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #393: Hamrun Spartans 3–1 Zabbar St. Patrick