Hamrun Spartans 0–2 Shakhtar Donetsk

Hamrun Spartans

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhtar Donetsk

Isaque Silva 64'

Luca Meirelles 61'

12/11/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hamrun Spartans27%

×Draw22%

Shakhtar Donetsk51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamrun SpartansExpected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.92

Hamrun Spartans

1.33

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.92

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 44% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

2.17

1.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hamrun Spartans

1.33

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.17

allows per match

Hamrun Spartans

1.67

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamrun Spartans ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hamrun Spartans or draw

49%

Hamrun Spartans or Shakhtar Donetsk

78%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk

73%

Winning margin

Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+

11%

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals

74%

Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals

38%

Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals

15%

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

85%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

57%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)

34%

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamrun Spartans at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamrun Spartans attack 1.33 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.17 + Hamrun Spartans defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hamrun Spartans scores more

27%

level

22%

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

51%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Xerri

Hamrun Spartans · D

7.6

Match Events

10'

Yukhym Konoplia

46'

V. Tobias← Y. Konoplya

46'

O. Ocheretko← A. Bondarenko

50'

Oleg Ocheretko

52'

Joseph Mbong

57'

Matias Garcia

61'

Luca Meirelles↳ I. Azarovi

64'

Isaque Silva↳ Pedrinho

65'

S. Attard← N. Koffi

65'

M. El Fanis← J. Mbong

65'

S. Meijer← S. Smajlagic

67'

Eguinaldo← Pedrinho

74'

S. Xerri← Emerson

74'

D. Simkus← J. Cadjenovic

81'

Kaua Elias← Luca Meirelles

89'

M. Faryna← I. Azarovi

90'

Eguinaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HamrunShakhtar

Overview

39%Possession61%

5Total Shots18

0.23Expected Goals (xG)2.79

3Corners4

10Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots18

2On Target9

3Off Target2

0Blocked7

1Inside Box15

4Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

331Total Passes522

263Accurate Passes441

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

0.37Goals Prevented0.37

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4