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Hamrun Spartans vs Lija Athletic — FA Trophy 2020

Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lija Athletic
Lija Athletic
1/13/2024FA TrophyFA Trophy · 1st RoundMFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hamrun Spartans89%
×Draw8%
Lija Athletic3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamrun Spartans
3.06
Lija Athletic
0.38

Hamrun Spartans creates 705% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hamrun Spartans
3.13
Lija Athletic
0.50

allows per match

Hamrun Spartans
0.25
Lija Athletic
3.00

finishing

Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par
Lija Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamrun Spartans ↓

Lija Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hamrun Spartans or draw
97%
Hamrun Spartans or Lija Athletic
92%
Draw or Lija Athletic
11%

Winning margin

Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+
72%
Lija Athletic wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals
95%
Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals
80%
Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals
57%
Lija Athletic 1+ goals
32%
Lija Athletic 2+ goals
6%
Lija Athletic 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)
97%
Lija Athletic (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamrun Spartans at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

Lija Athletic away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamrun Spartans attack 3.13 + Lija Athletic defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.06

Lija Athletic attack 0.50 + Hamrun Spartans defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Hamrun Spartans scores more
89%
level
8%
Lija Athletic scores more
3%

Hamrun Spartans at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Hamrun Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Trophy: Hamrun Spartans 3–0 Lija Athletic

Hamrun Spartans beat Lija Athletic 3-0 in FA Trophy on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.