Lindholm 1–0 Hedensted: Result & Stats

Lindholm

FT

1 – 0

Hedensted

8/31/2013

Denmark Series - Group 3 · Round 4Lindholm Høje Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lindholm34%

×Draw31%

Hedensted34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LindholmExpected goals in this matchHedensted

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

Lindholm

0.97

Hedensted

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.33

creates per match

1.60

0.33

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lindholm

0.33

Hedensted

1.60

allows per match

Lindholm

0.33

Hedensted

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lindholm+0.00on par

Hedensted+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lindholm ↓

Hedensted →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Lindholm or draw

66%

Lindholm or Hedensted

69%

Draw or Hedensted

66%

Winning margin

Lindholm wins by 2+

13%

Hedensted wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lindholm 1+ goals

62%

Lindholm 2+ goals

25%

Lindholm 3+ goals

7%

Hedensted 1+ goals

62%

Hedensted 2+ goals

25%

Hedensted 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lindholm (draw refunded)

50%

Hedensted (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lindholm at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Hedensted away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lindholm attack 0.33 + Hedensted defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Hedensted attack 1.60 + Lindholm defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Lindholm scores more

34%

level

31%

Hedensted scores more

34%

Lindholm at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Lindholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff