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Hammerfest IF Stein vs Skeid II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Hammerfest IF Stein
Hammerfest IF Stein
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Skeid II
Skeid II
10/2/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 22Vår Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hammerfest IF Stein18%
×Draw16%
Skeid II66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammerfest IF Stein
1.53
Skeid II
3.00

Skeid II creates 96% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hammerfest IF Stein
0.69
Skeid II
1.84

allows per match

Hammerfest IF Stein
4.15
Skeid II
2.37

finishing

Hammerfest IF Stein+0.00on par
Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammerfest IF Stein ↓

Skeid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Hammerfest IF Stein or draw
34%
Hammerfest IF Stein or Skeid II
84%
Draw or Skeid II
82%

Winning margin

Hammerfest IF Stein wins by 2+
7%
Skeid II wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Hammerfest IF Stein 1+ goals
78%
Hammerfest IF Stein 2+ goals
45%
Hammerfest IF Stein 3+ goals
20%
Skeid II 1+ goals
95%
Skeid II 2+ goals
79%
Skeid II 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Hammerfest IF Stein (draw refunded)
21%
Skeid II (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammerfest IF Stein at home — creates 0.69, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammerfest IF Stein attack 0.69 + Skeid II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.53

Skeid II attack 1.84 + Hammerfest IF Stein defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hammerfest IF Stein scores more
18%
level
16%
Skeid II scores more
66%

Skeid II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammerfest IF Stein vs Skeid II

Skeid II beat Hammerfest IF Stein 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Vår Energi Arena in Hammerfest.