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Hammerfest IF Stein vs Oppsal — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Hammerfest IF Stein
Hammerfest IF Stein
FT
1 – 3
Oppsal
Oppsal
4/30/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 4Vår Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hammerfest IF Stein14%
×Draw16%
Oppsal70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammerfest IF Stein
1.28
Oppsal
2.92

Oppsal creates 128% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Hammerfest IF Stein
0.69
Oppsal
1.68

allows per match

Hammerfest IF Stein
4.15
Oppsal
1.87

finishing

Hammerfest IF Stein+0.00on par
Oppsal+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammerfest IF Stein ↓

Oppsal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Hammerfest IF Stein or draw
30%
Hammerfest IF Stein or Oppsal
84%
Draw or Oppsal
86%

Winning margin

Hammerfest IF Stein wins by 2+
5%
Oppsal wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Hammerfest IF Stein 1+ goals
72%
Hammerfest IF Stein 2+ goals
37%
Hammerfest IF Stein 3+ goals
14%
Oppsal 1+ goals
94%
Oppsal 2+ goals
78%
Oppsal 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Hammerfest IF Stein (draw refunded)
17%
Oppsal (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammerfest IF Stein at home — creates 0.69, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

Oppsal away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammerfest IF Stein attack 0.69 + Oppsal defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.28

Oppsal attack 1.68 + Hammerfest IF Stein defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hammerfest IF Stein scores more
14%
level
16%
Oppsal scores more
70%

Oppsal at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Oppsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammerfest IF Stein vs Oppsal

Oppsal beat Hammerfest IF Stein 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Vår Energi Arena in Hammerfest.