Hammerfest IF Stein 1–2 Follo: Result & Stats

Hammerfest IF Stein

FT

1 – 2

Follo

6/4/2023

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 8Vår Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hammerfest IF Stein6%

×Draw10%

Follo84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammerfest IF SteinExpected goals in this matchFollo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

3.35

Hammerfest IF Stein

0.80

Follo

3.35

Follo creates 319% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

0.69

creates per match

2.54

4.15

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Hammerfest IF Stein

0.69

Follo

2.54

allows per match

Hammerfest IF Stein

4.15

Follo

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammerfest IF Stein+0.00on par

Follo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammerfest IF Stein ↓

Follo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–29%

0–310%

0–49%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Hammerfest IF Stein or draw

16%

Hammerfest IF Stein or Follo

90%

Draw or Follo

94%

Winning margin

Hammerfest IF Stein wins by 2+

2%

Follo wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

Hammerfest IF Stein 1+ goals

55%

Hammerfest IF Stein 2+ goals

19%

Hammerfest IF Stein 3+ goals

5%

Follo 1+ goals

96%

Follo 2+ goals

84%

Follo 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

Hammerfest IF Stein (draw refunded)

6%

Follo (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammerfest IF Stein at home — creates 0.69, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

Follo away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammerfest IF Stein attack 0.69 + Follo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.80

Follo attack 2.54 + Hammerfest IF Stein defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 3.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Hammerfest IF Stein scores more

6%

level

10%

Follo scores more

84%

Follo at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Follo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff