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Hammer SpVg vs TuS Erndtebruck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
FT
4 – 0
TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
8/29/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 124nexx Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hammer SpVg53%
×Draw20%
TuS Erndtebruck27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammer SpVg
2.27
TuS Erndtebruck
1.59

Hammer SpVg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 35 away

creates per match

Hammer SpVg
1.84
TuS Erndtebruck
1.29

allows per match

Hammer SpVg
1.89
TuS Erndtebruck
2.71

finishing

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par
TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammer SpVg ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Hammer SpVg or draw
73%
Hammer SpVg or TuS Erndtebruck
80%
Draw or TuS Erndtebruck
47%

Winning margin

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
32%
TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
90%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
66%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
39%
TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
80%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
47%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
66%
TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammer SpVg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammer SpVg attack 1.84 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.27

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + Hammer SpVg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hammer SpVg scores more
53%
level
20%
TuS Erndtebruck scores more
27%

Hammer SpVg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hammer SpVg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Hammer SpVg 4–0 TuS Erndtebruck

Hammer SpVg beat TuS Erndtebruck 4-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at 24nexx Arena in Hamm.