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Hammarby W vs Rosengård W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Hammarby W
Hammarby W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rosengård W
Rosengård W
M. Tanikawa 70'
5/20/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 7Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hammarby W40%
×Draw24%
Rosengård W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby W
1.62
Rosengård W
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 79 away

creates per match

Hammarby W
2.34
Rosengård W
2.27

allows per match

Hammarby W
0.81
Rosengård W
0.90

finishing

Hammarby W+0.00on par
Rosengård W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Rosengård W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw
64%
Hammarby W or Rosengård W
76%
Draw or Rosengård W
60%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+
20%
Rosengård W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals
80%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
48%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
22%
Rosengård W 1+ goals
79%
Rosengård W 2+ goals
45%
Rosengård W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)
52%
Rosengård W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Rosengård W away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.34 + Rosengård W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.62

Rosengård W attack 2.27 + Hammarby W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hammarby W scores more
40%
level
24%
Rosengård W scores more
36%

Hammarby W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
M. EdrudHammarby WHammarby W · G
7.7

Match Events

59'
A. Hartikainen← B. Sprung
70'
M. Tanikawa
75'
T. Sørbo← J. Roddar
75'
V. Hasund← S. Vallotto
75'
E. Westin← J. Blakstad
83'
E. Larsson← O. Holdt

Possession

50%Hammarby

Shots

7Hammarby

Pass accuracy

50%Hammarby

Statistics

HammarbyRosengård
Overview
50%Possession50%
7Total Shots9
0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.70
5Corners2
10Fouls7
Shots
7Total Shots9
2On Target6
2Off Target3
2Blocked0
4Inside Box5
3Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
462Total Passes411
355Accurate Passes314
77%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls7
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Damallsvenskan: Hammarby W 0–1 Rosengård W

Rosengård W beat Hammarby W 1-0 in Damallsvenskan on May 20, 2024.

Goals: M. Tanikawa (70').

Hammarby W controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Hammarby IP in Stockholm.