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Hammarby W vs Norrköping W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Hammarby W
Hammarby W
Preview
13:00
Norrköping W
Norrköping W
9/5/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 17Hammarby IP
Big match
55%
Hammarby W
model favours
55%23%22%

Hammarby W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Hammarby W55%
×Draw23%
Norrköping W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby W
1.83
Norrköping W
1.06

Hammarby W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 44 away

creates per match

Hammarby W
2.34
Norrköping W
1.30

allows per match

Hammarby W
0.81
Norrköping W
1.32

finishing

Hammarby W+0.00on par
Norrköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Norrköping W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw
78%
Hammarby W or Norrköping W
77%
Draw or Norrköping W
45%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+
31%
Norrköping W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals
84%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
54%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
28%
Norrköping W 1+ goals
65%
Norrköping W 2+ goals
29%
Norrköping W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)
72%
Norrköping W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Norrköping W away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.34 + Norrköping W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.83

Norrköping W attack 1.30 + Hammarby W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hammarby W scores more
55%
level
23%
Norrköping W scores more
22%

Hammarby W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Norrköping W score first in only 25% of matches
  • Hammarby W have won 6 of the last 7 meetings
  • 67% of Hammarby W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Hammarby W’s matches
  • Norrköping W win just 20% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Hammarby W play Possession-dominant, Norrköping W Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Hammarby W
Possession-dominant
Norrköping W
Defensively solid
60%Possession48%
82%Pass accuracy74%
16.1Shots12.6
2.58xGBiggest gap1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Hammarby WNorrköping W

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

6
Hammarby W
1
Draws
0
Norrköping W
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 29%
4–02–22–03–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DWLWW
W
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hammarby W face Norrköping W (Damallsvenskan)

Damallsvenskan returns with Hammarby W hosting Norrköping W. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hammarby W host Norrköping W at Hammarby IP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.