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Hammarby W vs Göteborg W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Hammarby W
Hammarby W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Göteborg W
Göteborg W
4/18/2021DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 1Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Hammarby W39%
×Draw25%
Göteborg W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby W
1.51
Göteborg W
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 22 away

creates per match

Hammarby W
2.34
Göteborg W
2.05

allows per match

Hammarby W
0.81
Göteborg W
0.68

finishing

Hammarby W+0.00on par
Göteborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Göteborg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw
64%
Hammarby W or Göteborg W
75%
Draw or Göteborg W
61%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+
19%
Göteborg W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals
78%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
44%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
19%
Göteborg W 1+ goals
76%
Göteborg W 2+ goals
42%
Göteborg W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)
52%
Göteborg W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Göteborg W away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.34 + Göteborg W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.51

Göteborg W attack 2.05 + Hammarby W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hammarby W scores more
39%
level
25%
Göteborg W scores more
36%

Hammarby W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammarby W vs Göteborg W

Göteborg W beat Hammarby W 1-0 in Damallsvenskan on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Hammarby IP in Stockholm.