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Hammarby W vs Brommapojkarna W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Hammarby W
Hammarby W
Preview
13:00
Brommapojkarna W
Brommapojkarna W
10/4/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 21Hammarby IP
Big match
61%
Hammarby W
model favours
61%20%19%

Brommapojkarna W score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Hammarby W61%
×Draw20%
Brommapojkarna W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby W
2.15
Brommapojkarna W
1.11

Hammarby W creates 94% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hammarby W
2.14
Brommapojkarna W
1.25

allows per match

Hammarby W
0.98
Brommapojkarna W
2.15

finishing

Hammarby W+0.16scores more
Brommapojkarna W-0.39scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Brommapojkarna W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw
81%
Hammarby W or Brommapojkarna W
80%
Draw or Brommapojkarna W
39%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+
38%
Brommapojkarna W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals
88%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
63%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
36%
Brommapojkarna W 1+ goals
67%
Brommapojkarna W 2+ goals
30%
Brommapojkarna W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)
76%
Brommapojkarna W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

Brommapojkarna W away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.14 + Brommapojkarna W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.15

Brommapojkarna W attack 1.25 + Hammarby W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hammarby W scores more
61%
level
20%
Brommapojkarna W scores more
19%

Hammarby W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hammarby W score first in only 17% of matches
  • 73% of Brommapojkarna W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Hammarby W have won 8 of the last 9 meetings
  • 67% of Hammarby W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Brommapojkarna W win just 10% against the top half (vs 38% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Hammarby W play Possession-dominant, Brommapojkarna W Direct / counter-attacking

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Hammarby W
Possession-dominant
Brommapojkarna W
Direct / counter-attacking
60%Possession41%
82%Pass accuracy70%
16.1Shots9.9
2.58xGBiggest gap1.25
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Hammarby WBrommapojkarna W

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

8
Hammarby W
1
Draws
0
Brommapojkarna W
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 44%
3–06–04–15–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DWLWW
W
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hammarby W face Brommapojkarna W (Damallsvenskan)

Damallsvenskan returns with Hammarby W hosting Brommapojkarna W. Match starts October 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hammarby W host Brommapojkarna W at Hammarby IP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.