Hammarby W 2–1 Brommapojkarna W: Result & Stats

Hammarby W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Brommapojkarna W

E. Joramo 32'

S. Vallotto 17'

E. Toivio 67'

4/21/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 2Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Hammarby W68%

×Draw19%

Brommapojkarna W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby WExpected goals in this matchBrommapojkarna W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.87

Hammarby W

2.23

Brommapojkarna W

0.87

Hammarby W creates 156% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 60 away

2.34

creates per match

0.93

0.81

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Hammarby W

2.34

Brommapojkarna W

0.93

allows per match

Hammarby W

0.81

Brommapojkarna W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammarby W+0.00on par

Brommapojkarna W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Brommapojkarna W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw

87%

Hammarby W or Brommapojkarna W

81%

Draw or Brommapojkarna W

32%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+

44%

Brommapojkarna W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals

89%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

65%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

38%

Brommapojkarna W 1+ goals

58%

Brommapojkarna W 2+ goals

22%

Brommapojkarna W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

84%

Brommapojkarna W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Brommapojkarna W away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.13 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.34 + Brommapojkarna W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.23

Brommapojkarna W attack 0.93 + Hammarby W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hammarby W scores more

68%

level

19%

Brommapojkarna W scores more

13%

Hammarby W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

E. Joramo

Hammarby W · M

8.3

Match Events

17'

S. Vallotto

32'

E. Joramo

56'

T. Ölvestad← A. Priks

63'

E. Wangerheim← S. Vallotto

63'

S. Holmberg← S. Lennartsson

67'

F. Thörnqvist← W. Wärulf

67'

E. Toivio

75'

T. Sørbo← J. Roddar

78'

Thea Sørbo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HammarbyBrommapojkarna

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots6

2.03Expected Goals (xG)1.19

16Corners3

6Fouls5

Shots

20Total Shots6

7On Target4

3Off Target0

10Blocked1

14Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

560Total Passes279

457Accurate Passes204

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3