Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hammarby Talang vs Umea FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Hammarby Talang
Hammarby Talang
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Umea FF
Umea FF
10/15/2022Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 27Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Hammarby Talang61%
×Draw21%
Umea FF19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby Talang
2.11
Umea FF
1.09

Hammarby Talang creates 94% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hammarby Talang
1.85
Umea FF
0.83

allows per match

Hammarby Talang
1.35
Umea FF
2.37

finishing

Hammarby Talang+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby Talang ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hammarby Talang or draw
81%
Hammarby Talang or Umea FF
79%
Draw or Umea FF
39%

Winning margin

Hammarby Talang wins by 2+
37%
Umea FF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hammarby Talang 1+ goals
88%
Hammarby Talang 2+ goals
62%
Hammarby Talang 3+ goals
35%
Umea FF 1+ goals
66%
Umea FF 2+ goals
30%
Umea FF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hammarby Talang (draw refunded)
76%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby Talang at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.35 · 81 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby Talang attack 1.85 + Umea FF defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.11

Umea FF attack 0.83 + Hammarby Talang defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hammarby Talang scores more
61%
level
21%
Umea FF scores more
19%

Hammarby Talang at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hammarby Talang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammarby Talang vs Umea FF

Umea FF beat Hammarby Talang 2-0 in Ettan - Norra on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Hammarby IP in Stockholm.