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Hammarby Talang vs Dalkurd FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Hammarby Talang
Hammarby Talang
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
4/12/2021Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 2Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hammarby Talang42%
×Draw24%
Dalkurd FF34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby Talang
1.61
Dalkurd FF
1.43

Hammarby Talang creates 13% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hammarby Talang
1.85
Dalkurd FF
1.50

allows per match

Hammarby Talang
1.35
Dalkurd FF
1.37

finishing

Hammarby Talang+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby Talang ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hammarby Talang or draw
66%
Hammarby Talang or Dalkurd FF
76%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
58%

Winning margin

Hammarby Talang wins by 2+
21%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hammarby Talang 1+ goals
80%
Hammarby Talang 2+ goals
48%
Hammarby Talang 3+ goals
22%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
76%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
42%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hammarby Talang (draw refunded)
55%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby Talang at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.35 · 81 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby Talang attack 1.85 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dalkurd FF attack 1.50 + Hammarby Talang defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hammarby Talang scores more
42%
level
24%
Dalkurd FF scores more
34%

Hammarby Talang at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hammarby Talang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammarby Talang vs Dalkurd FF

Dalkurd FF beat Hammarby Talang 3-1 in Ettan - Norra on April 12, 2021.

The match was played at Hammarby IP in Stockholm.