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Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK — Svenska Cupen 2019

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
2/17/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hammarby FF58%
×Draw21%
Vasteras SK FK21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
2.10
Vasteras SK FK
1.19

Hammarby FF creates 76% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
3.05
Vasteras SK FK
1.58

allows per match

Hammarby FF
0.79
Vasteras SK FK
1.16

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par
Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Vasteras SK FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
79%
Hammarby FF or Vasteras SK FK
79%
Draw or Vasteras SK FK
42%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
35%
Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
88%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
62%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
35%
Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
70%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
33%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
73%
Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 3.05, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 3.05 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 2.10

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.58 + Hammarby FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
58%
level
21%
Vasteras SK FK scores more
21%

Hammarby FF at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK

Vasteras SK FK beat Hammarby FF 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.