Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS — Allsvenskan 2026

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
FT
8 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
N. Vasic 86', 79', 70'
M. Madjed 57'
V. Lind 33'
P. Abraham 22'
N. Besara 18'
N. Persson 11'
C. Styffe 32'
4/18/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 33Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hammarby FF76%
×Draw15%
Orgryte IS8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
2.49
Orgryte IS
0.69

Hammarby FF creates 261% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
2.27
Orgryte IS
0.43

allows per match

Hammarby FF
0.96
Orgryte IS
2.71

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
92%
Hammarby FF or Orgryte IS
85%
Draw or Orgryte IS
24%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
54%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
92%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
71%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
45%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
50%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
15%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
90%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.96 · 123 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 2.27 + Orgryte IS defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.49

Orgryte IS attack 0.43 + Hammarby FF defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
76%
level
15%
Orgryte IS scores more
8%

Hammarby FF at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
V. LindHammarby FFHammarby FF · M
10.0

Match Events

11'
N. Persson↳ M. Karlsson
18'
N. Besara↳ N. Persson
22'
P. Abraham
28'
Mikael Dyrestam
32'
C. Styffe
33'
V. Lind↳ N. Besara
57'
N. Christoffersson← J. Tibbling
57'
M. Madjed↳ N. Besara
58'
D. Hodzic← O. Parker-Price
60'
T. Tekie← N. Besara
60'
N. Vasic← P. Abraham
60'
F. Adjei← O. Johansson
70'
N. Vasic↳ F. Adjei
71'
O. Hagen← M. Madjed
73'
J. Azulay← M. Dyrestam
73'
M. Ebietomere← T. Sana
78'
O. Steinke← N. Persson
79'
N. Vasic↳ V. Lind
86'
N. Vasic↳ V. Lind

Possession

62%Hammarby

Shots

33Hammarby

Pass accuracy

53%Hammarby

Statistics

HammarbyOrgryte
Overview
62%Possession38%
33Total Shots12
4.36Expected Goals (xG)1.46
6Corners6
8Fouls9
Shots
33Total Shots12
17On Target4
9Off Target5
7Blocked3
23Inside Box5
10Outside Box7
Passing
62%Possession38%
582Total Passes360
525Accurate Passes291
90%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves9
Discipline
8Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Allsvenskan: Hammarby FF 8–1 Orgryte IS

Hammarby FF beat Orgryte IS 8-1 in Allsvenskan on April 18, 2026.

Goals: N. Persson (11'), N. Besara (18'), P. Abraham (22'), C. Styffe (32'), V. Lind (33'), M. Madjed (57'), N. Vasic (70', 79', 86').

Hammarby FF controlled possession (62%) and registered 33 shots to 12.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.