Hammarby FF 2–1 IK brage: Result & Stats

Hammarby FF

2 – 1

IK brage

6/14/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Årsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hammarby FF47%

×Draw23%

IK brage30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby FFExpected goals in this matchIK brage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.44

Hammarby FF

1.84

IK brage

1.44

Hammarby FF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

1.88

1.00

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Hammarby FF

1.80

IK brage

1.88

allows per match

Hammarby FF

1.00

IK brage

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

IK brage →

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw

70%

Hammarby FF or IK brage

77%

Draw or IK brage

53%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

26%

IK brage wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

84%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

55%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

28%

IK brage 1+ goals

76%

IK brage 2+ goals

42%

IK brage 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

61%

IK brage (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 1.80 + IK brage defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

IK brage attack 1.88 + Hammarby FF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hammarby FF scores more

47%

level

23%

IK brage scores more

30%

Hammarby FF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff