Hammam-Sousse 1–1 Kasserine: Result & Stats

Hammam-Sousse

FT

1 – 1

Kasserine

3/27/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hammam-Sousse49%

×Draw28%

Kasserine23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammam-SousseExpected goals in this matchKasserine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.83

Hammam-Sousse

1.34

Kasserine

0.83

Hammam-Sousse creates 61% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 32 away

1.62

creates per match

0.88

0.78

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Hammam-Sousse

1.62

Kasserine

0.88

allows per match

Hammam-Sousse

0.78

Kasserine

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammam-Sousse+0.00on par

Kasserine+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammam-Sousse ↓

Kasserine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hammam-Sousse or draw

77%

Hammam-Sousse or Kasserine

72%

Draw or Kasserine

51%

Winning margin

Hammam-Sousse wins by 2+

23%

Kasserine wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hammam-Sousse 1+ goals

74%

Hammam-Sousse 2+ goals

39%

Hammam-Sousse 3+ goals

15%

Kasserine 1+ goals

56%

Kasserine 2+ goals

20%

Kasserine 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hammam-Sousse (draw refunded)

68%

Kasserine (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammam-Sousse at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Kasserine away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammam-Sousse attack 1.62 + Kasserine defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Kasserine attack 0.88 + Hammam-Sousse defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hammam-Sousse scores more

49%

level

28%

Kasserine scores more

23%

Hammam-Sousse at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hammam-Sousse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff