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HamKam U19 vs Odd U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

HamKam U19
HamKam U19
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Odd U19
Odd U19
2/17/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 2HIAS-Bana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

HamKam U1937%
×Draw19%
Odd U1944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HamKam U19
2.40
Odd U19
2.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

HamKam U19
2.38
Odd U19
3.06

allows per match

HamKam U19
2.13
Odd U19
2.41

finishing

HamKam U19+0.00on par
Odd U19+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HamKam U19 ↓

Odd U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

HamKam U19 or draw
56%
HamKam U19 or Odd U19
81%
Draw or Odd U19
63%

Winning margin

HamKam U19 wins by 2+
21%
Odd U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

HamKam U19 1+ goals
91%
HamKam U19 2+ goals
69%
HamKam U19 3+ goals
42%
Odd U19 1+ goals
92%
Odd U19 2+ goals
73%
Odd U19 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

HamKam U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Odd U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HamKam U19 at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

Odd U19 away — creates 3.06, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HamKam U19 attack 2.38 + Odd U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.40

Odd U19 attack 3.06 + HamKam U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

HamKam U19 scores more
37%
level
19%
Odd U19 scores more
44%

Odd U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Odd U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HamKam U19 vs Odd U19

Odd U19 beat HamKam U19 6-0 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at HIAS-Bana in Ottestad, Stange.