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HamKam II vs Strømsgodset II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

HamKam II
HamKam II
FT
9 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
8/10/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 15Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HamKam II66%
×Draw16%
Strømsgodset II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HamKam II
2.92
Strømsgodset II
1.50

HamKam II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

HamKam II
2.15
Strømsgodset II
1.38

allows per match

HamKam II
1.62
Strømsgodset II
3.69

finishing

HamKam II+0.00on par
Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HamKam II ↓

Strømsgodset II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

HamKam II or draw
82%
HamKam II or Strømsgodset II
84%
Draw or Strømsgodset II
34%

Winning margin

HamKam II wins by 2+
46%
Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

HamKam II 1+ goals
94%
HamKam II 2+ goals
78%
HamKam II 3+ goals
55%
Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
78%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
44%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

HamKam II (draw refunded)
79%
Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HamKam II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Strømsgodset II away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HamKam II attack 2.15 + Strømsgodset II defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.92

Strømsgodset II attack 1.38 + HamKam II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

HamKam II scores more
66%
level
16%
Strømsgodset II scores more
18%

HamKam II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "HamKam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: HamKam II 9–0 Strømsgodset II

HamKam II beat Strømsgodset II 9-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.