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HamKam II vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

HamKam II
HamKam II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
7/17/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 14Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HamKam II63%
×Draw16%
Funnefoss / Vormsund21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HamKam II
3.19
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.85

HamKam II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

HamKam II
3.46
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.85

allows per match

HamKam II
1.85
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.92

finishing

HamKam II+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HamKam II ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

HamKam II or draw
79%
HamKam II or Funnefoss / Vormsund
84%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
37%

Winning margin

HamKam II wins by 2+
44%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

HamKam II 1+ goals
96%
HamKam II 2+ goals
82%
HamKam II 3+ goals
60%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
84%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
55%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

HamKam II (draw refunded)
75%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HamKam II at home — creates 3.46, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HamKam II attack 3.46 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 3.19

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.85 + HamKam II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

HamKam II scores more
63%
level
16%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
21%

HamKam II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "HamKam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: HamKam II 2–2 Funnefoss / Vormsund

HamKam II and Funnefoss / Vormsund drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on July 17, 2023.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.