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HamKam II vs Fredrikstad II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

HamKam II
HamKam II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
10/20/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 25Ottestad Idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HamKam II60%
×Draw19%
Fredrikstad II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HamKam II
2.54
Fredrikstad II
1.47

HamKam II creates 73% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

HamKam II
2.54
Fredrikstad II
1.31

allows per match

HamKam II
1.62
Fredrikstad II
2.54

finishing

HamKam II+0.00on par
Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HamKam II ↓

Fredrikstad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

HamKam II or draw
79%
HamKam II or Fredrikstad II
81%
Draw or Fredrikstad II
40%

Winning margin

HamKam II wins by 2+
39%
Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

HamKam II 1+ goals
92%
HamKam II 2+ goals
72%
HamKam II 3+ goals
46%
Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
77%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
43%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

HamKam II (draw refunded)
74%
Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HamKam II at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HamKam II attack 2.54 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.54

Fredrikstad II attack 1.31 + HamKam II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

HamKam II scores more
60%
level
19%
Fredrikstad II scores more
21%

HamKam II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "HamKam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: HamKam II 1–0 Fredrikstad II

HamKam II beat Fredrikstad II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Ottestad Idrettspark in Ottestad, Stange.