Hamilton Olympic 1–2 Weston Bears: Result & Stats

Hamilton Olympic

FT

1 – 2

Weston Bears

8/3/2024

Northern NSW NPL · Round 14Darling Street Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Hamilton Olympic36%

×Draw22%

Weston Bears42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton OlympicExpected goals in this matchWeston Bears

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.81

Hamilton Olympic

1.65

Weston Bears

1.81

Weston Bears creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 80 away

1.91

creates per match

1.89

1.73

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hamilton Olympic

1.91

Weston Bears

1.89

allows per match

Hamilton Olympic

1.73

Weston Bears

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Olympic+0.00on par

Weston Bears+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Olympic ↓

Weston Bears →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Hamilton Olympic or draw

58%

Hamilton Olympic or Weston Bears

78%

Draw or Weston Bears

64%

Winning margin

Hamilton Olympic wins by 2+

18%

Weston Bears wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Hamilton Olympic 1+ goals

81%

Hamilton Olympic 2+ goals

49%

Hamilton Olympic 3+ goals

23%

Weston Bears 1+ goals

84%

Weston Bears 2+ goals

54%

Weston Bears 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Olympic (draw refunded)

46%

Weston Bears (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Olympic at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.73 · 78 matches

Weston Bears away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Olympic attack 1.91 + Weston Bears defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.65

Weston Bears attack 1.89 + Hamilton Olympic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hamilton Olympic scores more

36%

level

22%

Weston Bears scores more

42%

Weston Bears at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Weston Bears will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff