Hamilton Academical 0–0 Stirling Albion

Hamilton Academical

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stirling Albion

K. MacDonald 120+8' (pen)

C. Murray 120+6' (pen)

S. Featherstone 120+9' (pen)

C. McKinley 120+5' (pen)

A. Weir 120+3' (pen)

H. Wright 120+1' (pen)

7/16/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 2ZLX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hamilton Academical44%

×Draw24%

Stirling Albion32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.33

Hamilton Academical

1.60

Stirling Albion

1.33

Hamilton Academical creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

1.29

1.38

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.50

Stirling Albion

1.29

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.38

Stirling Albion

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

68%

Hamilton Academical or Stirling Albion

76%

Draw or Stirling Albion

56%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

22%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

80%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

47%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

22%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

74%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

38%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

58%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.50 + Stirling Albion defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Stirling Albion attack 1.29 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

44%

level

24%

Stirling Albion scores more

32%

Hamilton Academical at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

A. Weir← S. Denham

52'

R. McGeachie

63'

E. Henderson← O. Shaw

70'

J. Barjonas← B. Maguire

70'

C. Murray← S. Bradley

77'

L. Morgan← B. Williamson

77'

K. MacDonald← S. Martin

80'

S. Featherstone← A. Roy

80'

C. McKinley← D. Hilson

87'

H. Howe← D. Carrick

120+1'

H. WrightPenalty

120+2'

D. McGowanMissed penalty

120+3'

A. WeirPenalty

120+4'

K. O'HaraMissed penalty

120+5'

C. McKinleyPenalty

120+6'

C. MurrayPenalty

120+7'

C. CraneMissed penalty

120+8'

K. MacDonaldPenalty

120+9'

S. FeatherstonePenalty

Hamilton

Stirling

1

2

3

30

4

▼

Denham

14

Ewen

19

⚽

Wright

20

Waugh

25

▼

Hilson

9

▼

Carrick

10

▼

1

5

6

3

2

8

▼

Martin

14

▼

Maguire

18

▼

Williamso

9

O'Hara

19

▼

Shaw

11

▼

Bradley

Manager: J. Rankin

63'▲E. Henderson←▼O. Shaw

70'▲J. Barjonas←▼B. Maguire

70'▲C. Murray←▼S. Bradley

77'▲L. Morgan←▼B. Williamson

77'▲K. MacDonald←▼S. Martin

Hamilton Academical substitutes

7Henderson10Barjonas17Murray12Morgan16MacDonald15Newbury31Lane21Lyness4Kilday

Manager: A. Maybury

24'▲A. Weir←▼S. Denham

80'▲S. Featherstone←▼A. Roy

80'▲C. McKinley←▼D. Hilson

87'▲H. Howe←▼D. Carrick

Stirling Albion substitutes

18Weir5Featherstone16McKinley22Howe21Scott27McIlravey15Reilly17Erskine11Knox

League Cup: Hamilton Academical 0–0 Stirling Albion

Hamilton Academical and Stirling Albion drew 0-0 in League Cup on July 16, 2024.

Goals: H. Wright (120+1' pen), A. Weir (120+3' pen), C. McKinley (120+5' pen), C. Murray (120+6' pen), K. MacDonald (120+8' pen), S. Featherstone (120+9' pen).

The match was played at ZLX Stadium in Hamilton.

Hamilton Academical vs Stirling Albion — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Hamilton Academical 0–0 Stirling Albion