Hamilton Academical 1–1 ST Johnstone

Hamilton Academical

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

ST Johnstone

R. Callachan 36'

G. Melamed 87'

3/3/2021

Premiership · 1st Phase - 30Fountain of Youth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hamilton Academical35%

×Draw27%

ST Johnstone38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.29

Hamilton Academical

1.21

ST Johnstone

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 115 away

0.91

creates per match

0.93

1.66

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

0.91

ST Johnstone

0.93

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.66

ST Johnstone

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

ST Johnstone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

62%

Hamilton Academical or ST Johnstone

73%

Draw or ST Johnstone

65%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

15%

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

70%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

34%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

12%

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

72%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

37%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

47%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.66 · 47 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 0.91 + ST Johnstone defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.21

ST Johnstone attack 0.93 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

35%

level

27%

ST Johnstone scores more

38%

ST Johnstone at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

G. Melamed

ST Johnstone · F

7.9

Match Events

36'

R. Callachan↳ B. Anderson

50'

J. Brown← S. Rooney

66'

M. O'Halloran← C. Bryson

66'

69'

69'

75'

76'

82'

85'

B. Stirling← C. Trafford

87'

G. Melamed↳ L. Gordon

90'

Ross Callachan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HamiltonST

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots17

8Corners8

16Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots17

3On Target5

6Off Target9

3Blocked3

8Inside Box11

4Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

285Total Passes406

165Accurate Passes280

58%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1