Hamilton Academical 0–0 Ross County: Result & Stats

Hamilton Academical

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ross County

1/21/2023

FA Cup · 4th RoundFountain of Youth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hamilton Academical41%

×Draw27%

Ross County31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchRoss County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Hamilton Academical

1.31

Ross County

1.10

Hamilton Academical creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.86

creates per match

0.50

1.71

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.86

Ross County

0.50

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.71

Ross County

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Ross County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Ross County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

69%

Hamilton Academical or Ross County

73%

Draw or Ross County

59%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

19%

Ross County wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

73%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

38%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

14%

Ross County 1+ goals

67%

Ross County 2+ goals

30%

Ross County 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

57%

Ross County (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Ross County away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.86 + Ross County defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ross County attack 0.50 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

41%

level

27%

Ross County scores more

31%

Hamilton Academical at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff