Hamilton Academical 0–0 Queen's Park

Hamilton Academical

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Queen's Park

7/13/2019

League Cup · Group Stage - 1Fountain of Youth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hamilton Academical41%

×Draw25%

Queen's Park34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchQueen's Park

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.33

Hamilton Academical

1.50

Queen's Park

1.33

Hamilton Academical creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

1.29

1.38

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.50

Queen's Park

1.29

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.38

Queen's Park

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Queen's Park →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

66%

Hamilton Academical or Queen's Park

75%

Draw or Queen's Park

59%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

20%

Queen's Park wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

78%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

44%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

19%

Queen's Park 1+ goals

74%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

38%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

55%

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Queen's Park away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.50 + Queen's Park defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Queen's Park attack 1.29 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

41%

level

25%

Queen's Park scores more

34%

Hamilton Academical at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff