Hamilton Academical 3–1 Musselburgh Athletic

Hamilton Academical

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Musselburgh Athletic

O. Shaw 90+5'

S. McGinty 89'

S. Hendrie 24'

J. Todd 49'

1/18/2025

FA Cup · 4th RoundNew Douglas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hamilton Academical32%

×Draw23%

Musselburgh Athletic45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchMusselburgh Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.85

Hamilton Academical

1.53

Musselburgh Athletic

1.85

Musselburgh Athletic creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.86

creates per match

2.00

1.71

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.86

Musselburgh Athletic

2.00

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.71

Musselburgh Athletic

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Musselburgh Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Musselburgh Athletic →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

55%

Hamilton Academical or Musselburgh Athletic

77%

Draw or Musselburgh Athletic

68%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

15%

Musselburgh Athletic wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

78%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

45%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

20%

Musselburgh Athletic 1+ goals

84%

Musselburgh Athletic 2+ goals

55%

Musselburgh Athletic 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

42%

Musselburgh Athletic (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Musselburgh Athletic away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.86 + Musselburgh Athletic defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.53

Musselburgh Athletic attack 2.00 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

32%

level

23%

Musselburgh Athletic scores more

45%

Musselburgh Athletic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Musselburgh Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

S. Hendrie↳ C. Smith

26'

S. Martin

32'

J. Barker

46'

K. MacDonald← S. Martin

49'

J. Todd↳ N. Evans

68'

S. Bradley← K. OHara

69'

E. Henderson← S. McKinstry

76'

A. Walsh← G. Auriemma

89'

S. McGinty↳ C. Smith

90'

J. Longridge← S. Hendrie

90+1'

J. Smith← A. Dunsmore

90+2'

N. Reid← J. Barker

90+5'

O. Shaw↳ J. Barjonas

Hamilton

Musselburgh

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⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

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⚽

Manager: J. Rankin

46'▲K. MacDonald←▼S. Martin

68'▲S. Bradley←▼K. OHara

69'▲E. Henderson←▼S. McKinstry

90'▲J. Longridge←▼S. Hendrie

Hamilton Academical substitutes

16MacDonald11Bradley7Henderson3Longridge21Lyness18Todorov6McGowan23O'Connor

Manager: L. Burns

76'▲A. Walsh←▼G. Auriemma

90+1'▲J. Smith←▼A. Dunsmore

90+2'▲N. Reid←▼J. Barker

Musselburgh Athletic substitutes

20Walsh10Smith23Reid3Donaldson1Laing4Myles11Knox25O'Connor